Thursday, June 19, 2003
BOOM: If the market and the economy is indeed recovering, I wonder what the next bellwether sector will be? (CAVEAT: I am not employed by a market research or related firm, nor do I claim to represent any opinion other than my own -which is highly speculative and should be considered suspect anyways.) My gut tells me that transportation, specifically airline and related stocks will be the next big thing. Let's look at the facts. The industry is ripe for a sea-change. Already, we have seen weaker players stumble as the travel business tanked post-9/11. Additionally, low cost carriers, such as JetBlue and Southwest are ravaging the full-service providers and radically restructuring the performance expectations of the sector. Big players that "get it" such as Continental and Delta should weather the storm. Throw in the proability that oil proces have peaked and such wildcards as sector-busting, truly paradigm-shifting companies such as Eclipse Aviation and you have a leading candidate to lead the recovery (IMHO.) Another candidate is commmunications, what with the shift to wireless and all. Comm is highly politicized and regulated, though, which makes it tough to be a breakout star. Ditto energy, biotech and biomed sectors. I would look to energy to pick up after the summer, though, which will probably be a very cool one, thus depressing demand.